At its peak, the $TRUMP token was trading above $70, reaching a market capitalization of over $13 billion. Since then, it has experienced a dramatic decline, with current market cap levels hovering around $1.5 billion — representing a drop of more than 80% from its all-time high.
What’s particularly notable about this correction is that it occurred prior to any major token unlocks. In other words, the market repriced $TRUMP significantly without the added supply pressure typically associated with unlock events.
This raises a critical question for investors:
If this level of drawdown happened before unlocks, what will the impact be once a substantial portion of locked tokens enter circulation?
Currently, only around 20% of $TRUMP’s total supply is in circulation, classifying it as a classic low float, high FDV token. This means the token’s market capitalization is based on a relatively small supply, inflating its perceived valuation. As the remaining supply unlocks, the influx of new tokens could significantly increase sell pressure — especially concerning in a market with limited demand and liquidity.
Importantly, all of the upcoming $TRUMP token unlocks are allocated to the founding team, which, according to our classification, falls under insider allocation. This event marks the beginning of a broader unlock schedule, with additional insider allocations set to be released over time.
Unless new demand enters the market to absorb this incoming supply, there is a high risk of negative price impact. This pattern has been observed across many “celebrity tokens” that saw initial hype but failed to sustain momentum — ultimately leading to steep declines post-unlock.
Using our recently launched "WenUnlocks", a trading portal by Tokenomist, users can easily identify that $TRUMP’s first cliff unlock is scheduled for April 18, 2025. This unlock represents approximately 20% of the current circulating supply, with a notional value of $321.6 million based on the current market price.
What makes WenUnlocks particularly useful is its ability to overlay token unlock data directly onto the price chart, enabling users to visually correlate historical price action with unlock events. Given the cliff structure of this upcoming release—where tokens are distributed all at once rather than linearly—the potential for market impact is significantly higher, especially in an environment with fading demand.
This situation isn’t unique to $TRUMP. In fact, there is over $1 billion worth of token unlocks scheduled in the upcoming week, involving major tokens such as $ARB, $FTN, $STRK, and several others.
In the current market environment—characterized by sideways movement, low liquidity, and macro uncertainty—fundamentals matter more than ever. Monitoring unlock schedules, insider allocations, and emission trends is crucial for managing risk and identifying real opportunities. This is why staying on top of tokenomics data is no longer optional — it’s essential.